# Treatment Validation: KAOPEN Path Around Opening

*For each country: opening year, KAOPEN at t-5 through t+5, treatment classification, and policy trigger.*

| Country | Status | Open Yr | Type | t-5 | t-4 | t-3 | t-2 | t-1 | t | t+1 | t+2 | t+3 | t+4 | t+5 | Policy Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALB | opener | 2010 | big_jump | -0.17 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | Late transition; EU candidate (2014); gradual opening |
| ARM | always_open | 1997 | big_jump | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0.08 | 1.53 | 1.78 | 2.03 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | IMF Article VIII acceptance (1997); gradual liberalization post-independence |
| AZE | opener | 2002 | big_jump | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | Oil boom-era opening (2002); REVERSAL by t+2 back to -1.25 |
| BGR | opener | 2006 | crossed_zero | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.00 | -0.75 | -0.50 | 2.03 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | Currency board (1997) after hyperinflation; EU accession (2007) |
| BIH | opener | 2001 | big_jump | -- | -- | -- | 0.58 | 0.83 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 1.08 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.83 |  |
| BLR | opener | 2007 | big_jump | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -0.17 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | Brief opening under Lukashenko (2007); REVERSAL by t+1 back to -1.25 |
| CZE | opener | 2000 | crossed_zero | -- | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | 0.08 | 1.53 | 1.78 | 2.03 | 2.28 | 2.28 | Velvet Revolution reforms; EU accession (2004) |
| EST | always_open | -- |  | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | Currency board (1992); EU accession (2004); eurozone (2011) |
| GEO | opener | 2012 | crossed_zero | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.52 | -0.68 | -0.68 | 1.60 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | Rose Revolution (2003) → rapid liberalization; Saakashvili reforms |
| HRV | opener | 2003 | crossed_zero | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | Post-war reconstruction; EU accession (2013) |
| HUN | opener | 1996 | big_jump | -- | -1.94 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | 1.27 | Early liberalizer; EU accession (2004); partial reversal post-2010 |
| KAZ | never_opened | -- |  | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | Remained below threshold despite oil-driven growth; NFRK sovereign fund (2000) |
| KGZ | opener | 2016 | crossed_zero | 1.53 | -0.49 | -0.74 | -0.74 | -0.74 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | Late opener; Kyrgyz Republic joined WTO (1998) but KAOPEN lagged |
| LTU | always_open | -- |  | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.03 | 1.78 | 1.53 | Currency board (1994); EU accession (2004); eurozone (2015) |
| LVA | always_open | -- |  | 2.03 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.28 | Fixed peg to SDR/EUR; EU accession (2004); eurozone (2014) |
| MDA | never_opened | -- |  | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | Remained below threshold within sample period; EU Association (2014) may drive later opening |
| MKD | opener | 2002 | big_jump | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 |  |
| MNG | opener | 1996 | crossed_zero | -- | -- | -- | -- | -1.25 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | Early liberalizer post-1990 transition; mining FDI driver |
| POL | opener | 1994 | big_jump | -- | -- | -- | -1.94 | -1.94 | -0.86 | -0.17 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | Balcerowicz Plan (1990); EU accession (2004); REVERSAL by t+2 back to -1.25 |
| ROU | opener | 1992 | big_jump | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -0.74 | -1.94 | -1.94 | -1.94 | -1.25 | -1.25 | Gradual post-Ceausescu; EU accession (2007); REVERSAL by t+1 back to -1.94 |
| RUS | opener | 2000 | big_jump | -- | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.86 | -1.94 | -0.86 | -1.94 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | Post-1998 crisis liberalization; volatile path with partial reversals |
| SVK | opener | 2003 | big_jump | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 0.70 | 0.95 | Meciar-era delays; rapid opening post-1998; eurozone (2009) |
| SVN | opener | 1997 | big_jump | -- | -- | -- | -- | -1.25 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | Gradual; EU accession (2004); eurozone (2007) |
| TJK | opener | 2008 | big_jump | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -0.06 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | Post-civil war reconstruction; IMF PRGF programs; REVERSAL by t+1 back to -1.25 |
| TKM | never_opened | -- |  | -1.94 | -1.94 | -1.94 | -1.94 | -1.25 | -1.94 | -1.25 | -1.94 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | State-controlled; never meaningfully opened capital account |
| UKR | never_opened | -- |  | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.94 | -1.94 | Never crossed opening threshold; Orange Revolution (2004) brought partial reforms only |
| UZB | never_opened | -- |  | -1.94 | -1.94 | -1.94 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.25 | -1.94 | State-controlled; remained closed through Karimov era; opened post-2017 (after sample) |

*KAOPEN from Chinn-Ito (2006, updated). Opening defined as first year KAOPEN crosses 0 from below or jumps >1 point.*
*For never-opened countries, columns show KAOPEN for 2000-2010.*
*REVERSAL indicates KAOPEN fell back below the opening threshold within 2 years of the identified opening event.*
*Countries classified as never_opened remained below the KAOPEN threshold throughout the sample period, regardless of broader reform narratives.*